CO129-348 - Governor Sir Lugard - 1908 [7-10] — Page 200

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early stage of the disease yet from enquiries it would appear

*

forward

that not so many have left this year as frevioubly. Hence I am

inclined to think that the 1908 epidemic has not been much

greater, if at all great, than that of 1906.

The average number of cases per year from

1895 1903 inclusive was 977, and the average from 1898 1903

1,238 cases.

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1907 inclusive was

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There appears to be a tendency for plague

epidemics to vary in intensity in alternate years. The years

1894 1898 show this, as do also the years 1901 1908. If

there be such a natural tendency its effect may be marked by

such factor as preventive measures and the flea factor.

Other things being equal it is fair to

assume that a greater prevalence of rat-fleas would mean more

human cases.

We have no data with reference to annual

variations in the prevalence of rat-fleas.

If the fleas be assumed to be

a constant

factor the human cases should vary with the rats infected, except in so far as preventive measures have checked the

transference from rat to human beings.

Rats were collected in the Colony for at

least two years before Professor Simpson came to investigate plague here, but it does not appear that rats were before then

examined for plague to any great extent.

The trend of opinion appears then to have been that plague in rats and human beings was not so intimately

connected as it is now known to be.

Systematic examination of rats was however

followed undertaken shortly after Professor Simpson's arrival,

by the turning out of and washing of houses where infected rats came from and even the turning of all ground floors and washing out of the same if an infected rat had been found in the street

in